July 31st has come and gone, however like most of the nation (maybe) I am not holding my breath for any ‘changes’ to come. This is because nothing has been changed besides renewed promises of a better country and governance, with nothing coming to actual fruition. The two big contenders in the July 2013 Presidential elections, incumbent President Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai went head to head on July 31 for the strongest seat in the country, the presidential seat and as everyone is still waiting for the conclusion of the results, I will share with you why Morgan will probably not win these elections.
In any conflict, consistency is key and as evident over the years, the Zimbabwe government really has been operating in a state of conflict. My focus is mainly since the emergence of Morgan Tsvangirai and his ZCTU movement, a movement that later moulded to MDC party, the Movement for Democratic Change. A middle-aged strapping and seemingly determined man, like King Leonidas rushing to battle Xerxes, Morgan seemed to lead his followers in a movement against oppression from the party in power, ZANU PF. You can read all about his battles in an earlier post here (Zimbabwe’s New President: Is Morgan Tsvangirai The Man Or Will Anyone Else Do?) The small error that Morgan did was he failed to be consistent in his battle for the emancipation of the people of Zimbabwe. When the unity government was begrudgingly agreed to in 2008, Morgan stalled in his consistency. He seemed to have reached some kind of personal pinnacle and became complacent, a common trait when a power-hungry individual finally gets a taste of it. That fight that was in Morgan seemed to fade and as most people call it, he began to dine with the so-called enemy. Most of his own former avid supporters even lost faith in him and accused him of being a puppet for ZANU-PF. He was no longer that same avid and change-hungry Morgan we knew from the trade union era, his consistency stalled and it is very hard to place your future in the hands of a man who seems to be determined today and relaxed tomorrow. Morgan seemed to have started this amazing race then resorted to a jog halfway in. What happened? The reason why Zimbabwe was delivered from the clutches of the white man in 1980, was due to Robert’s consistency in wanting the country back in the hands of the people. He fought, him and his comrades and eventually in 1980, achieved his goal. Even as the years progressed, Robert proved that he is a man who will go out and get what he wants, namely the Land Reform Program. Robert has always maintained he wants to get the land back to the people and he kicked each and every white farmer out of Zimbabwe and handed out farms to Zimbabwean farmers, solidifying his reputation as a man who can be counted on. Even though there were several issues and inconsistencies with how this was done, the point is, he promised the people something and he delivered, not a 100%, but he made a dent big enough to convince/hoodwink the greater public. Law 5, so much depends on your reputation – guard it with your life.
The 12th Law of Power states using selective honesty and generosity to disarm your opponent and I must say, Morgan fell into this trap, hook, line and open palm. Robert knew Morgan wanted a seat at the high table and he offered him something that was close and a whole bunch of embellishments. Morgan got the Prime Minister title, the colossal mansion, the fancy cars, perks here and there, a couple of farms and of course, to the outside, it seemed like Robert Mugabe was indeed sharing power with Morgan Tsvangirai fair and square. Lol, okay. It should be noted that while on the outside, it seemed like Morgan was given some power, he really did not get any power that could make any significance. Robert retained control of the powerful ministries; Defence, Home Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Transport and Finance just to name a few. Morgan on the other hand, was handed over Economic Planning and Investment Promotion, Energy and Power Development, Health and Child Welfare, Labour and Social Welfare, Water Resources Development and Management, Public Service, Sport, Arts and Culture out of the measly list. This seemed to settle Morgan for a while, he got comfortable with the luxurious life and slowed down his campaign. Robert had won though, he studied his enemy and gave him a figment of what he wanted and for Morgan to complain afterwards, he would just sound ungrateful wouldn’t he? Morgan then forgot about his people, those same people who were fighting the war with him and expected them to just accept the Unity Deal, wait, “Morgan, is that what we were fighting for? Is this why your supporters got stoned and murdered over the years in the name of MDC, for you to get a less than optimum seat and relax?” Of course, he lost a handful of followers after that. Morgan, Law 40, despise the free lunch; it usually comes with hidden surprises.
Then come 2013. The presidential seat is up for grabs and Morgan remembered he wants it. So he ramped up his comrades and went out again, spreading the message of job creation, economic empowerment and the re-injection of foreign investors in the country. Well, it all sounds good and well but let us look at what Robert has been promising and delivering to the masses; the people cried for land and he delivered the land to them (yes, I know, he handed the lucrative spots to his friends and family and cost the nation billions in revenue because he gave the land to amateurs who only farmed for substinance and not export, I know, it affected me too because I lost my job at Kondozi Farm in 2004, but I digress), and recently, the people were complaining of high water bills and Robert’s right hand man, Ignitius Chombo ordered everyone’s water bill debt to be wiped out, dating back to 2009. Of course, we all know this is an extremely dumb move on their part because as early as next year, half the council workers will be jobless or there won’t be any money for council duties like water sanitation etc, because all that revenue that was expected from those water bills and other charges is gone. Consider this though, a struggling teacher who is barely making it day-to-day will rejoice at the thought of having at least one bill eradicated from an already tight monthly budget and will not look at the bigger picture, but who among them is? Law 11, learn to keep people dependent on you. When it all comes crushing down next year or sooner, Robert will be their saviour. The point on the larger scale is Robert made a move to offer some much-needed relief and ZANU-PF got guaranteed a vote.The people cried for something tangible and Robert and co. delivered and he will get a vote. Morgan has been promising and pinky-swearing, we are yet to see something tangible. Law 6; court attention at all costs – everything is judged by its appearence, what is unseen counts for nothing.
Morgan will not get any votes in the army, why? The army is a lifetime brotherhood and they will only support their own, Robert Mugabe and the rest of the ZANU-PF posse who are proud war veterans. The police is probably not in favor with Morgan either because the powers that be do not question the corruption within the police force. Police officials are fleecing bribes from anyone and everyone on the streets and complains go unheard. Of course when Morgan comes into power, this will soon stop and they are not going to support that. Anyone who is benefiting from the current situation in government will never vote for Morgan because they risk losing their luxuries due to shuffles. Any in a country that is high on the list of corruption, isn’t that the majority of the working population?
Lastly, a question to ponder; Morgan has been complaining to all who gave him time, about how the electoral process was marred with rigging and not free and fair and the results would not be reflective of the will of the nation. If you knew this before the elections began, why did you take part? Why not support your stance and refuse to be involved in a supposedly biased electoral process? No, you chose to stick your hand in the fire knowing it would burn, so please do not cry from the pains of third degree burns as the results are announced Mr. Prime Minister. Morgan came off arrogant in his last interviews before the elections and almost pompous and over-confident. At the same time, accusing his opponent of shoddy schemes. Like a coach to his team before a big race, you pump up your team spirit with confidence and hope and energy, not use the opportunity for a pep talk to fling mud. That is a lesson Morgan can take from Robert The Orator. The night of the elections, Robert held a press conference and invited any questions, opened an almost softer side of himself, showing calm and confidence, cracking jokes and keeping it lighthearted and even saying he will step down gracefully like a true sportsman if he loses; he used his charm to catch everyone off-guard!! Meanwhile Morgan seemed panicked and scared, declaring war, promising a 2008 revolt if he loses and throwing accusations back and forth. No charm or poise. Like I said in my earlier post, he seemed like a man defeated before the war had begun. Law 24; play the perfect courtier.
The results are still coming in and you can catch up on 1st TV (1st TV on UStream) however, I believe all odds are against Morgan right now, I may later stand corrected but I am willing to bet my heels on that.
- Breaking: Mugabe beats Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe election: ZANU-PF source (zimbabweelection.com)
- [FFZE] Mugabe Will Not Put Food on the Table -Tsvangirai (zimbabweelection.com)
- Robert Mugabe vote-rigging allegations mar Zimbabwe elections (metro.co.uk)
- Tsvangirai terms poll a sham as Mugabe headed for ‘landslide’ (africareview.com)
- Zimbabwe’s New President: Is Morgan Tsvangirai The Man Or Will Anyone Do? (justsayintho.com)
- Zimbabwe election was ‘huge farce’ – Morgan Tsvangirai (zimbabweelection.com)
- Tsvangirai describes polls as illegitimate, warns of crisis (thezimbabwean.co)
- Morgan Tsvangirai declares elections illegitimate (thezimbabwean.co)